Each of these puts you in a seat for a fixed span of time with a scarce resource, a hidden ground truth, and people who push back. None of them is about the tools — a chart, a GPU queue, a feature board and a ticket queue are just surfaces. Each is built around one specific way that confident people reason badly, and each scores you against a truth you cannot see until the end. They pause at gates and hand you to an LLM chat window, where the rest of the cast lives.
Three real market sessions, rebased and anonymised, traded on one account that carries your P&L forward. Day 2 is built to punish exactly what Day 1 taught you.
| Capital | $25,000 |
| Span | 3 sessions |
| Hard stop | −$1,500 and risk pulls your card |
| Mandatory | a typed thesis on every entry |
GATES → pre-open pitch · midday risk check · EOD P&L review
Recommend at most four of eight interventions for a 70B run. Every experiment you can afford is at least an order of magnitude below the scale you are deciding for.
| Budget | 6,000 GPU-hours · 4 slots |
| Span | 5 days × 10 h |
| Decide for | 70B — where you have no data |
| Mandatory | a predicted effect + CI per run |
GATES → Monday plan · Wednesday midweek · Friday readout
Ten features, seven ways of finding out what is true, and five people who all want different things and none of whom reports to you. Unfinished work is worth exactly zero.
| Capacity | 48 eng-weeks |
| Span | 12 weeks |
| Held to | activation 31.4 → 40.0 |
| Second score | trust — below 40 caps your grade |
GATES → roadmap · midquarter · ship-or-cut · QBR
Six tickets in 412k lines you did not write. Two of them look identical on the board; one is sitting in the code and the other is only in your mentor's head.
| Focus time | 60 h over 10 days |
| Real budget | Deepa's 10 hours |
| Gate to ship | understanding, not time |
| Mandatory | an estimate before you start |
GATES → kickoff · standup · 1:1 · retro
In three of the four I do not know the ground truth during the gates and will not pretend to — I reason only from the evidence you put in front of me.